Local Election 2026. Baslidon and Essex

 

The local elections have been said to be a triumph for Reform UK PLC.  That's not the whole picture.  In Billericay, the Conservatives retained their seats. Not my ideal, but not the worse that could happen.  In Baslidon, Reform took 11 of the 14 seats, which is no surprise, as the Labour led council was very unpopular and apparently chaotic.

We will now see how the council responds to the planning applications that are going through, particularly in Billericay, where they had been rubber-stamped.  This led to an unreasonable amount of development, with no improvements in infrastructure.

Here's the new numbers 

Labour	12
Conservative	12
Reform	11
Independent/Other	7

Essex, meanwhile was won by Reform UK PLC, convincingly.

 

Party	Seats	Notes
Reform UK	53	Gained control of the council.
Conservative Party	13	Lost long‑held majority.
Liberal Democrats	5	Minor representation.
Independent	2	Includes non‑party councillors.
Green Party	1	Single seat.
Labour Party	1	Single seat.
Residents for Uttlesford (R4U)	1	Local party.
People’s Independent Party (PIP)	1	Local party.

 I can only hope we do better than Kent, where Reform made a complete mess.

How will the new council deal with the problems that they have.  The main issue for Essex that I see day-to-day is the awful state of the roads, but I suspect that that is not the worse problem they have.  I expect the Essex part of my council tax to rise by the maximum allowed next year, and for things in Essex to get slightly worse. 

Anniston 5 July 2024 - The sickness spreads

I am feeling somewhat better today, but Jo is not, and Karen and Robbie are also sick. Not much happened - which is a good thing for all of us.

Lunch from Chick-fil-A. Dinner was cooked by Robert - he is a good cook, and I always enjoy the meals he cooks.

The general election has produced the promised Labour Landslide, although with the lowest turnout in recent years and also the lowest vote share for the winning party. This makes the government less than legitimate, but that is not how they will see it.  Reform (a right wing party) has split the Tory vote in many seats so our 'First-past-the-post' system has delivered a labour (left-wing) government, when the will of those who voted was for a more right-wing government.

General Election 2019 - What just happened?

Last week the UK held it's 3 general election in just a few years.  The fixed term parliments act was supposed to put a stop to this, but the chaos in parliament had to be resolved somehow.  All we have heard since 2016 is that we must honour the referendum result.  This election was called because parliament have failed to get a deal passed.  My thoughts on the referendum are here and here.

I know we vote for candidates, but we also vote for parties and party leaders.  The main choices were:

• Boris Johnson, Conservative - Slogan "Get Brexit done"
• Jeremy Corbyn, Labour - Slogan "For the many, not the few"
• Jo Swinson, Liberal Democrat - "Stop Brexit"

There is also the Brexit party to consider, this is another Nigel Farage creation, and they decided to stand only in seats without a conservative MP.

Coming up to polling day it looked very like the Conservatives would end up with a small majority, just enough to manage, but there would still be the possibility of lost votes and failed legislation.  That did not happen.  Instead the conservatives have a huge majority, 26 seats larger than Margaret Thatcher in 1979. The Liberals, interestingly won 11 seats in both elections.

Why?  How do we understand this and is it the re-write of the UK political scene so many commentators are talking about.

Conservative Majority

The Conservative majority is delivered in our 'First Past the Post' system by each candidate getting the most votes in the constituency, so it is possible that there are various factors at play. 
Strategy: The main strategy seemed to be to say "Get Brexit done", and as little else as possible.  The Conservative campaign was marred by very obvious lies on a lot of other topics and some very poor electoral tacitcs.  This didn't seem to bother people.

It seems this was really a Brexit election, and the leave voters just wanted to leave.  Some of the remain voters, knowing that they can't Stop Brexit just wanted it over too.

Labour Collapse

The labour vote collapsed. 
Strategy: Here, I have some trouble.  The promises made were eye-wateringly expensive.  This may have put people off as the last Labour govenment presided over the 2008 crash which nearly bankrupted the country.  There was also no clear strategy on Brexit.  Eventually they settled for promising another referendum.  Labour have a problem, they are split 50-50 on leave-remain, either way they were going to upset half their voters.
Labour also had problems with the leader, he was not seen as a leader by many of the voting public.  The deputy leader was though, so that causes confusion.

It seems this really was a brexit election and if you can't make up your mind you will be punished.

Liberal Democrats - As you were

The Liberal Democrat vote, in terms of seats at least, produced a pretty average result.  The only real issue was the leader losing her seat, but this is a Scottish issue.
Strategy: Stop Brexit - and that's about all.  Not anywhere near enough for a party that has radical policies and lots of interesting ideas.  This party should understand that there are sometimes more important things than the cost.

It seems this was a brexit election and trying to reverse the referendum result was a bad decision.

Other Factors
The Brexit party effectively targetted Labour constituencies and pulled many of the leavers away from Labour.  Along with some Labour Leave voters switching to the Conservatives, this may have been the main reason for the Labour collapse.
Similarly in Scotland, the SNP gained seats.  Scotland has previously returned Labour MPs, so this will have contributed to their collapse too.

All Change?

I rather doubt it, even if Brexit is done quite quickly (end of 2020).  Unless the ex-Labour constituencies can be bought and initiatives like the Northern Powerhouse can be set up and let go, and then deliver, the voters will return to their old ways. If this can happen (as it should, but I doubt it will) maybe we have long term change. 
How will our trade deals with the rest of the world affect the NHS?  This will also be a crucial issue.  Even though the NHS already uses many private companies to get its work done, any perceived 'sale' will most certainly mean a return to historic voting patterns.
What will all those Brexit Party voters do?

Elections May 2010

I'm hoping and assuming that you've all done your part, and put your cross on two Ballot papers.  I went further than usual this year and stood as a candidate in the local council election.  I came 2nd, the result is here. It isn't bad considering that this is a very safe seat.  I wasn't really expecting to win.  Here though is the proof, a copy of the leaflet which should have been delivered throughout Billericay, but I know was not, because people have told me.
Here is the local Liberal Democrats website

It was a strange process, the only qualification seemed to be that I was willing for my name to be put on the ballot paper.  I have been a member of the party for a long time, but never an active member - I have never been to a branch meeting, for example.  Then there are the unbelievable number of pieces of paper.  Thankfully the local agent dealt with all that. I did get 4 (FOUR) letters inviting me to the various post election proceedings - monitoring and counts etc. - and so did all my family.
If I ever stand again I have my first costs saving idea!

So what would have happened if I had won, if the Nick Clegg effect had yielded more than 4% increase in the liberal vote?

I would have treated it as an Act of God and responded accordingly - Tried to be a good effective councillor. After all it seems that politics and faith have at least one thing in common.  To serve you just have to be available and willing.

Fourteen Minutes and thirty seconds to go ...

BBC Essex were live from the 100 bus yesterday morning.  They started at Basildon and got off at their offices in New London Road.  They were asking people about the debates shown on TV with the three party leaders.
I didn't see the debates, I missed the last one because I was at the Billericay Hustings, sponsored by CTB in Emanuel Church.  That was interesting enough to qualify for a question, so here is what I said.  It is a listen again of the whole of the breakfast show, my piece starts just after 02:23:00 (2 hours 23 minutes in). Just after the traffic news.  I'm not sure how long the clip will be there, and I haven't been able to capture it yet.
"Everyone has their 15 minutes of fame" (to mis-quote Andy Warhol).  Well, if they do, I am due another 14:30.  I'm also very aware of how little I manage of what I would like to have said - I'm not practised at dealing with the media, One of the things I don't think about when preparing a sermon is a 30-second sound bite.

So what of the Hustings themselves?

As I said it was a good opportunity to meet your prospective MP and listen to what they say.  You begin to find out who they are and what they believe.  My summary of what I heard is here.