I know we vote for candidates, but we also vote for parties and party leaders. The main choices were:
- Boris Johnson, Conservative - Slogan "Get Brexit done"
- Jeremy Corbyn, Labour - Slogan "For the many, not the few"
- Jo Swinson, Liberal Democrat - "Stop Brexit"
There is also the Brexit party to consider, this is another Nigel Farage creation, and they decided to stand only in seats without a conservative MP.
Coming up to polling day it looked very like the Conservatives would end up with a small majority, just enough to manage, but there would still be the possibility of lost votes and failed legislation. That did not happen. Instead the conservatives have a huge majority, 26 seats larger than Margaret Thatcher in 1979. The Liberals, interestingly won 11 seats in both elections.
Why? How do we understand this and is it the re-write of the UK political scene so many commentators are talking about.
Conservative Majority
The Conservative majority is delivered in our 'First Past the Post' system by each candidate getting the most votes in the constituency, so it is possible that there are various factors at play.Strategy: The main strategy seemed to be to say "Get Brexit done", and as little else as possible. The Conservative campaign was marred by very obvious lies on a lot of other topics and some very poor electoral tacitcs. This didn't seem to bother people.
It seems this was really a Brexit election, and the leave voters just wanted to leave. Some of the remain voters, knowing that they can't Stop Brexit just wanted it over too.
Labour Collapse
The labour vote collapsed.Strategy: Here, I have some trouble. The promises made were eye-wateringly expensive. This may have put people off as the last Labour govenment presided over the 2008 crash which nearly bankrupted the country. There was also no clear strategy on Brexit. Eventually they settled for promising another referendum. Labour have a problem, they are split 50-50 on leave-remain, either way they were going to upset half their voters.
Labour also had problems with the leader, he was not seen as a leader by many of the voting public. The deputy leader was though, so that causes confusion.
It seems this really was a brexit election and if you can't make up your mind you will be punished.
Liberal Democrats - As you were
The Liberal Democrat vote, in terms of seats at least, produced a pretty average result. The only real issue was the leader losing her seat, but this is a Scottish issue.Strategy: Stop Brexit - and that's about all. Not anywhere near enough for a party that has radical policies and lots of interesting ideas. This party should understand that there are sometimes more important things than the cost.
It seems this was a brexit election and trying to reverse the referendum result was a bad decision.
Other Factors
The Brexit party effectively targetted Labour constituencies and pulled many of the leavers away from Labour. Along with some Labour Leave voters switching to the Conservatives, this may have been the main reason for the Labour collapse.
Similarly in Scotland, the SNP gained seats. Scotland has previously returned Labour MPs, so this will have contributed to their collapse too.
All Change?
I rather doubt it, even if Brexit is done quite quickly (end of 2020). Unless the ex-Labour constituencies can be bought and initiatives like the Northern Powerhouse can be set up and let go, and then deliver, the voters will return to their old ways. If this can happen (as it should, but I doubt it will) maybe we have long term change.How will our trade deals with the rest of the world affect the NHS? This will also be a crucial issue. Even though the NHS already uses many private companies to get its work done, any perceived 'sale' will most certainly mean a return to historic voting patterns.
What will all those Brexit Party voters do?
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