General Election 2019 - What just happened?

Last week the UK held it's 3 general election in just a few years.  The fixed term parliments act was supposed to put a stop to this, but the chaos in parliament had to be resolved somehow.  All we have heard since 2016 is that we must honour the referendum result.  This election was called because parliament have failed to get a deal passed.  My thoughts on the referendum are here and here.

I know we vote for candidates, but we also vote for parties and party leaders.  The main choices were:

• Boris Johnson, Conservative - Slogan "Get Brexit done"
• Jeremy Corbyn, Labour - Slogan "For the many, not the few"
• Jo Swinson, Liberal Democrat - "Stop Brexit"

There is also the Brexit party to consider, this is another Nigel Farage creation, and they decided to stand only in seats without a conservative MP.

Coming up to polling day it looked very like the Conservatives would end up with a small majority, just enough to manage, but there would still be the possibility of lost votes and failed legislation.  That did not happen.  Instead the conservatives have a huge majority, 26 seats larger than Margaret Thatcher in 1979. The Liberals, interestingly won 11 seats in both elections.

Why?  How do we understand this and is it the re-write of the UK political scene so many commentators are talking about.

Conservative Majority

The Conservative majority is delivered in our 'First Past the Post' system by each candidate getting the most votes in the constituency, so it is possible that there are various factors at play. 
Strategy: The main strategy seemed to be to say "Get Brexit done", and as little else as possible.  The Conservative campaign was marred by very obvious lies on a lot of other topics and some very poor electoral tacitcs.  This didn't seem to bother people.

It seems this was really a Brexit election, and the leave voters just wanted to leave.  Some of the remain voters, knowing that they can't Stop Brexit just wanted it over too.

Labour Collapse

The labour vote collapsed. 
Strategy: Here, I have some trouble.  The promises made were eye-wateringly expensive.  This may have put people off as the last Labour govenment presided over the 2008 crash which nearly bankrupted the country.  There was also no clear strategy on Brexit.  Eventually they settled for promising another referendum.  Labour have a problem, they are split 50-50 on leave-remain, either way they were going to upset half their voters.
Labour also had problems with the leader, he was not seen as a leader by many of the voting public.  The deputy leader was though, so that causes confusion.

It seems this really was a brexit election and if you can't make up your mind you will be punished.

Liberal Democrats - As you were

The Liberal Democrat vote, in terms of seats at least, produced a pretty average result.  The only real issue was the leader losing her seat, but this is a Scottish issue.
Strategy: Stop Brexit - and that's about all.  Not anywhere near enough for a party that has radical policies and lots of interesting ideas.  This party should understand that there are sometimes more important things than the cost.

It seems this was a brexit election and trying to reverse the referendum result was a bad decision.

Other Factors
The Brexit party effectively targetted Labour constituencies and pulled many of the leavers away from Labour.  Along with some Labour Leave voters switching to the Conservatives, this may have been the main reason for the Labour collapse.
Similarly in Scotland, the SNP gained seats.  Scotland has previously returned Labour MPs, so this will have contributed to their collapse too.

All Change?

I rather doubt it, even if Brexit is done quite quickly (end of 2020).  Unless the ex-Labour constituencies can be bought and initiatives like the Northern Powerhouse can be set up and let go, and then deliver, the voters will return to their old ways. If this can happen (as it should, but I doubt it will) maybe we have long term change. 
How will our trade deals with the rest of the world affect the NHS?  This will also be a crucial issue.  Even though the NHS already uses many private companies to get its work done, any perceived 'sale' will most certainly mean a return to historic voting patterns.
What will all those Brexit Party voters do?

Referendum Result - Leave - First Thoughts

Thursday night I went to bed, as did anyone who was following the coverage, expecting the status quo to prevail.  52% for remain.  So I was surprised when I heard the result when the radio started this morning.  52% for leave.  I should have taken my predictions from Twitter - where the feeling was that leave were in the ascendancy.
Today on Twitter and in other places there have been cries of agony (that is not too strong).  My future is destroyed!  We won't be able to ...  (insert anything, or everything here, that we might lose).  I understand the reaction, it's what a sudden, unexpected dose of the unknown does to people - especially younger people.
It was no surprise, then, when the stock market and currency markets took a hit - especially as the traders had all gone to bed having 'bet' on remain. Suddenly there were losses to try to recover, which leads, inevitably, to more losses.
Right now we pray for those who really are suffering as a result of the shocks - those who can't change sterling into the currency they need, those who are having to pay inflated prices from suppliers in other countries (not just EU countries).
However bad it looks now, it won't be that bad in reality, because we see the worst very easily.  There will be a period of instability, that will hurt some more than others.  For now, we are still IN the EU - none of our laws that we have as a result of treaties can change.  Over the next few months we will get a new government and exit negotiations will begin.  That process should be complete in a couple of years.  Much will change, the country will look very different, and changes will continue once we have left.  The exit process gives us the opportunity to get things right, but it also gives us the equal opportunity to make things worse.  Hopefully our politicians will have a more intelligent dialogue with their people than has occurred so far.
Now, whether you are celebrating, or in shock and denial, or sad, or mildly disappointed, the thing to do is to "Keep calm and carry on".

Some particular reactions bear further comment.
Somehow trying to invalidate the result (the majority is not big enough, people didn't understand what they were voting for ...), is about as unhelpful as it gets.  A referendum result is valid if there is only a 1 vote difference.  If people understood so little that they thought a protest vote was a valid thing to do, then I hope they have learned a lesson.  That's OK in a by-election, not in a referendum.

Blaming your grandparents (and parents) by saying things like 'you have stolen my future', 'don't you ever listen to your kids', 'you don't have to live with this', just shows a certain level of immaturity.  Perhaps, if I am kinder, lack of experience.  Those with the experience, especially those who were old enough to be politically aware in 1972 (the year before Britain joined the EEC), have some idea what it is like to live independently, and may also remember the recession that was caused when we joined.  Many of them will have been thinking of their children and grandchildren and asking what's best for them, as well as what's best for us, before they decided how to vote.

The reaction that a vote to leave is down to poverty as part of a Guardian article I saw on Facebook suggested is also unhelpful.  There are many reasons to vote leave, and some of the people I know who voted that way cannot be described as being in poverty.

The future
I cannot tell what will happen any more than anyone else.  Short term predictions are likely to be quite accurate, long term ones are rarely any good.  We know only this for certain: the way our country is run is going to change.  That gives us an enormous opportunity to do good, so here's my vision:

• to set up government systems that are fair and open.
• to be compassionate and lead the world in helping others to develop (we do a pretty good job now) and taking them in when we need to (we used to do a pretty good job of that too)
• to care for the dispossessed, disadvantaged and those who fall into need
• to invest in research and development and grow our already impressive science base 
• to lead the world in environmental responsibility
• to create a British bill of responsibilities (not rights)

much of this was already being done, and will continue, let's hope and pray that we can make more of it happen.

If you like my vision, please don't elect me a prime minister, but please do push your MPs towards those goals.

If you read 'Should I stay or Should I go' that I wrote on Tuesday, you may be wondering how I voted. Well, after much deliberation I decided I was about 55% in favour of remain and voted accordingly.

So I didn't vote for this, but I'm going to try to make it work well.

Should I stay or should I go?

Or, more properly Should I vote stay or should I vote go?  Just some notes to help me think through the decision.

I am still undecided and the information I'm getting is well propaganda or just plain insults really.  Neither side has said anything really convincing.  Each of us will have our own issues.  Mine is primarily around our Identity.  Are we first British, or are we first European?

But I'm not voting for me only, I have 4 grandchildren (perhaps more) to think about. So there are other aspects to consider - it is a decision for the long term, or is it?  If we vote 'leave', I expect there to be another referendum once the exit terms are negotiated, say in 2 to 5 years..

Before we get to that what about:

The economy?
"Its the economy, stupid" - that's what wins elections, but here there is so much doubt.  The markets will react, in the short term there will be some pain, but in the longer term when we can trade with the whole world who knows.  Our trade with other EU countries is currently in decline, but that will not always be so.  We have a strong economy, theirs is weaker, but I can remember being the 'sick man' of Europe.
My conclusion is that we British have been traders for hundreds of years and we're mainly good at it.
The cost of being in the EU is about £8.5billion a year according to FullFact, not a great deal of money in the grand scheme of things.

Immigration
We need immigration.  We have too many immigrants.  Both can be true, in some places where there are many immigrants the locals feel swamped. In other places there are people desperate to employ people with particular skills that don't exist in this country.
The answer to high numbers is not about controlling immigration, but making adequate provision - houses, school places,  doctors surgeries - INFRASTRUCTURE.  Probably the single thing we are worst at.
The answer to lack of skills is training and planning for it long term.  Probably the thing we are next worse at.
Neither of these things really relates that much to the EU, although when large migrations occur they could provide some financial help.

Sovereignty
Who makes our laws? Who can tell us what to do?  The EU is undemocratic in as much as the agenda is set by an appointed commission.  These people are largely sponsored by businesses, and have their own agenda.  The EU courts can tell the UK government what to do, and can override British court judgements.  The first principle is that the law should apply to everyone, individuals, corporations and governments.  I believe the European courts system, largely set up by the British is generally a good thing.  All courts make (seemingly) wacky judgements from time to time.
Majority voting can mean that we get some rules we don't like, but that is true for all the countries.

Ever Close Union
The European Federation, or United States of Europe will eventually arrive, although now that there are so many countries it will take a lot longer to get here.  A well structured federation, with proper directly elected politicians could be a very good thing for Europe, but we are a long way from it, and Britain has (or is promised?) an opt-out, so we can stay on the side lines if we wish.

Predictions
There have been way too many predictions of doom, especially by the remain campaign.  Third world war - I doubt it.  Economic collapse - I doubt it.  No-one can tell what the world will be like next year (what did you think in 2007?), so predictions for 2030 are spurious guess work and can be safely ignored.
Where though is the vision? Neither side have told us how good it will be, what we can gain.

Identity
The final and most important issue for me is our identity.  Are we, as a people, a good fit for a European Union.  We are certainly geographically part of Europe, but also geographically split from Europe. That means that in so many ways we are different.

• We did not live under Napoleon, as much of Europe did, so our outlook and ways of doing things are different.  
• We broke away from the Catholic Church and as a result establish protestantism here, it was a difficult time, and some other EU countries have a similar experience, but none so dramatic or 'final'.
• We came first in the 'Age of Empires' game that ended around the beginning of the twentieth century, and that has left its mark on us - it gives us a certain expectation of leadership in the world.  That is a role we can still fulfil, but can we do it better out, or better in?  It is also a role that is diminishing, with the rise of China and India and ...
• We have not been occupied by a foreign power for over 1000 years.  Someone will tell me if another EU country can also claim that, I can't think of one.  We have, of course, imported foreign kings when it suited us.

Very little of what has been said in the run up to the referendum so far has been helpful or edifying.  One sound bite I remember from William Hague saying that there is much wrong with the EU, but now is the time to be fixing it from within, not getting out.  That I have to agree with.

Or perhaps I should take this view:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE

Conclusion
Still a don't know, maybe I'll write again on Friday.

Comments: Please comment, but please be balanced, and no doom and no propaganda please.